Is Political Polling Dead?

1. Set Focus
Frame the inquiry with these essential questions: What factors should people consider when choosing a candidate to vote for? What kinds of information are unnecessary or possibly detrimental to the political process?

2. Read and Discuss
Have students read the debate and then answer the following questions:

• What is the issue being debated? How does it relate to current events? (The issue is whether political polling is still useful. The issue is timely because the polls did not correctly predict the winner of the 2016 election and overestimated the margins Biden would win by in 2020.)

• Evaluate why these two authors might be interested in and qualified to comment on this issue. (Rom is a professor of public policy. Saad is an executive at a national polling company, which benefits financially from the continuing use of polls.) 

• Analyze Rom’s view. (Rom argues that political polls that attempt to show who’s likely to win aren’t useful. He says these types of polls are likely to be wrong because it’s difficult to predict who will vote and also difficult to get voters to respond to polls. He says polls can influence who people vote for, which he feels is a terrible way to choose a candidate.)

• Analyze Saad’s view. (Saad argues that political polls have great value. She says polling is essential to accurately and objectively monitor what the people want and ensure that the government is serving the people. She says the science behind polling is still strong and that pollsters will learn from recent polling mistakes to make polls better.)

4. Writing Prompt
In an essay, evaluate one of the debaters’ arguments. Assess whether the reasoning is valid and whether it’s supported with evidence. Point out biases or missing information.

5. Classroom Debate
Is political polling dead? Have students use the authors’ ideas, as well as their own, in a debate.

6. Vote
Go online to vote in Upfront’s poll—and see how students across the country voted.